Hanoi, March 13 - Good weather and high prices should help Vietnam harvest a bumper coffee crop late this year, with traders saying output could rise between 20-30 percent to around 1.3 million tonnes (21.7 million bags).
They cautioned though that there could still be factors such as weather or pests that could hit the crop between now and the start of the harvest in October.
"Output would expand by at least 30 percent after some yield declines in the previous crop, while farmers have ample cash to buy fertiliser and take care of trees," a trader with a foreign firm in Ho Chi Minh City told Reuters.
A second trader agreed that output could rise further but risks such as rains dropping coffee flowers or pests damaging part of the crop's cherries should be considered.
Vietnam's coffee crop size will be more obvious from June, said a third trader.
"But trees and flowers look very good now and if prices stay at 35,000 dong per kg, one could just wish to have enough money to buy the coffee," he said.
Robusta firmed to 37,500 dong ($2.34) per kg on Thursday from 35,500 dong early this week, below the record 41,000 dong late last week. Prices have jumped nearly two-third from last March and nearly one-third so far this year.
Coffee trees often recover with good yields for one or two harvests after a low-yield season, traders said.
The Vietnam Coffee Association said the 2007/2008 crop fell 25 percent to 15 million bags, and its chairman cautioned on Wednesday that unseasonal rains could have a negative impact on yields.
But traders said rains in the Central Highlands coffee belt since last month appeared to be helping farmers cut their watering cost and also helping trees absorb fertiliser, rather than cutting the overall yield.
Good prices do not only support production but also trigger many farmers to plant anew since 2007, two traders told Reuters after surveying the Central Highland crop, and could add at least 5 percent more to the country's coffee output a year.
Traders' estimates of the harvest that ended in January in Vietnam, the world's top robusta producer, are above a revised figure from the International Coffee Organization.
The ICO has revised up Vietnam's 2007/2008 crop to 17.5 million bags, from its previous estimate of 15.95 million bags.
The talk of a bumper crop came after speculative buying boosted London robusta futures on Wednesday to $2,652 a tonne, near a 12 1/2-year high of $2,815 a tonne. [ID:nL12774170] ($1=16,021 dong)