Mexico City, June 30 - Mexican brewer FEMSA, seen as a target in the current global beer industry consolidation, is more likely to team up with a partner to face future challenges than let a big-spending giant buy it out.
The maker of Tecate and Sol beer is controlled by a group of conservative families from the northern city of Monterrey that are united by marriage and analysts say money alone will not be enough to break their bonds.
Even if FEMSA, which also makes Bohemia and Dos Equis brews, were to link with a partner for a more global reach its controlling shareholders will be careful to chose one that will not lead to an ugly divorce.
"I see it as very remote that they will cede control of this important asset," said Actinver analyst Mauricio Brocado. "It is more likely that they go for a strategic partner."
FEMSA, the 10th largest brewer in the world by volume, and its local rival Modelo, the maker of Corona beer, are often tipped as targets in the consolidation of the industry because of their strong brands and growth outlook.
But both are run by a group of families.
In FEMSA's case, 74 percent of the voting shares are in the hands of families linked to Jose Antonio Fernandez Carbajal, FEMSA's chairman and chief executive.
FEMSA owns 100 percent of its beer division. It bought back a 30 percent stake from Interbrew when the Belgian brewer recently linked with Brazil's AmBev to form InBev.
FULL-SCALE DIVORCE
Relations between FEMSA and Interbrew had broken down, especially over distribution, and the buyback was an easier option than full-scale divorce.
"The experience with Interbrew left them with a sour taste in the mouth," said Brocado. "But they learnt a lot from this partner and they will be very careful if they link up again."
A full takeover of FEMSA is also seen as unlikely because it is not solely a beer maker.
It is also the largest Coke bottler in Latin America and operates the largest convenience store chain in Mexico, with more than 5,600 Oxxo shops -- selling its beers and Coke products -- and with plans to move to Colombia.
"All this makes it a more complex target," said Vector analyst Laura Herrera.
But that has not stopped the talk about a takeover or link-up for FEMSA at a time when Modelo is embroiled in InBev's $46.3 billion bid for U.S. brewer Anheuser-Busch. The maker of Budweiser already owns half of Modelo.
One suitor's name that is on the lips of many beer industry specialists is London-based SABMiller, the world's top brewer. Another is Heineken, with whom FEMSA has a deal to distribute its beers in the United States.
"I think that Heineken could be the one. Their deal has been working very well," said Actinver's Brocado.
"I think they feel very comfortable with this partner but I also think that there is a lot of water still to go under the bridge in this global beer consolidation soap opera," he said.
FEMSA had no comment.