Washington, Sept 12 - Sales at U.S. retail stores fell for a second straight month in August as consumers facing a tough job market cut spending, but declining gasoline prices seemed to lift their spirits in September.
A series of reports from the government and research groups underlined the sense of uneasiness among consumers as U.S. home foreclosures rise and jobs keep disappearing, raising chances that vital consumer spending will shrink in the third quarter.
U.S. retail sales fell 0.3 percent in August, according to the Commerce Department, which also sharply revised July sales to show a 0.5 percent decline rather than the 0.1 percent drop first reported.
The number is closely watched because consumer purchases of goods and services fuel two thirds of U.S. national economic activity and a sustained pullback raises chances of recession.
But separately, the Labor Department said a sharp retreat in energy costs pulled wholesale prices down in August by the largest amount in almost two years.
PRICE RESTRAINTS
A slowing economy helps contain price pressures and the latest data heightened speculation the Federal Reserve may need to cut interest rates before year-end. Futures markets rated chances of a cut by December at one-in-three.
And a Reuters/University of Michigan survey of consumer confidence jumped to 73.1 in September, its strongest since January, from 63 in August. That was well above analysts' expectations and likely reflected cheaper gasoline prices.
"Higher gas prices directly impact consumers' wallets, especially in a tough economic environment, so when gas prices eased over the past month, that boosted consumer confidence," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist for High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, New York.
The mixed data initially pushed up prices for U.S. government debt as traders began to inch further toward the view that a Federal Reserve rate cut was possible by year end.
But bonds turned negative by midday as stocks regained some ground they had lost earlier on fears about the possibility that investment bank Lehman Brothers could collapse.
The blue-chip Dow Jones industrial average ended the day little changed, down 11 points at 11,421 while the Nasdaq Composite Index inched ahead 3 points to close at 2,261.
JOBS A WORRY
Analysts said consumers were struggling with costlier energy, plunging home prices and an anemic jobs market.
"It looks like consumer spending is retrenching, not only retrenching but digging a new hole," said Chris Rupkey, senior financial economist for the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in New York. "I would be very surprised to see consumer spending in positive territory in the third quarter."
The August fall in sales was sharply contrary to forecasts by Wall Street analysts who had expected a 0.2 percent sales increase.
Separately, the Labor Department said August wholesale prices dipped by 0.9 percent, the sharpest retreat in almost two years, primarily because of a decline in energy costs.
That could be a relief to Federal Reserve policy-makers who meet on Tuesday to consider interest-rate strategy and have expressed concern about inflation. The Fed is widely seen keeping official interest rates on hold and may suggest it is growing a bit more nervous about the economy's weakness.
Sales at motor vehicle dealers rose 1.9 percent in August -- the first increase since January -- after a 4.3 percent July drop. But August sales still were down 13.5 percent from a year earlier.
Excluding motor vehicles, retail sales in August were down 0.7 percent after gaining 0.3 percent in July.
Gasoline sales fell 2.5 percent last month -- the biggest monthly decline since mid-2007 -- after a 0.2 percent rise in July. Gasoline prices eased in August from record July levels.
Another report from the Commerce Department showed business inventories rose during July at the sharpest rate in four years, another sign that consumers are reluctant to spend.
Inventories jumped 1.1 percent to $1.51 trillion after growing by a revised 0.8 percent in June, with stocks of unsold goods rising in categories ranging from new cars to clothing, food and furniture.