Oct 2 - Casual dining companies, caught between cash-strapped consumers and a tight financing environment, are slashing U.S. expansion plans and some are looking overseas for growth.
While the U.S. economy was booming, casual dining became a frequent indulgence for consumers. But with the country mired in its greatest financial crisis since the Great Depression, many have changed their habits to eat at less expensive restaurants or prepare more of their own meals.
"Calendar '09 for most restaurant chains will show slower development year over year, as the industry continues to rationalize the growth of new stores with the slowdown in consumer spending," Morgan Keegan analyst Destin Tompkins said.
To contend with a slowdown in customer traffic and rising costs to run their business, casual dining chains have been raising menu prices, cutting portion sizes and controlling raw material costs. They have also tried to manage their labor requirements closely and step up promotions.
This year, Asian-themed restaurant chain P.F. Chang's China Bistro Inc, is on track to open 17 of its namesake restaurants and 25 Pei Wei stores, but for next year it plans to open only 12 to 14 P.F. Chang's restaurants and 6 to 10 Pei Wei locations.
Expansion at O'Charley's, which operates bar and grill restaurants under the O'Charley's, Ninety Nine and Stoney River Legendary Steaks brand names, has come to a halt.
"We are not building restaurants right now," Chief Executive Gregory Burns said at a recent Thomas Weisel Partners Consumer Conference.
"The industry is going to a very slow-growth mode and so the number of restaurants in the pipeline is being decreased."
Burns said O'Charley's has also deferred remodeling work on some units that had been planned for the second half of 2008 as it awaits more clarity on the economic climate and higher sales and profits.
The store slowdown is not limited to company-owned stores but has also affected franchisees, Wedbush Morgan Securities Brian Moore said.
CREDIT WOES
Financing has also become a major restriction on unit growth for both company-owned and franchised restaurants, said Ron Paul, president of restaurant consulting firm Technomic.
This could hurt companies that rely heavily on a franchising model such as Denny's, DineEquity's Applebee's chain and Brinker International's Chili's brand, Wedbush's Moore said.
Casual dining as a segment has traditionally been company-owned, but that has been changing as some companies opt for more franchised stores to reduce operating exposure.
Difficulty in servicing existing debt could also put the brakes on a company's growth plans.
Ruby Tuesday, for one, has suspended new restaurant openings as its "business sector is overbuilt and demand has declined."
In its latest annual report, the operator of more than 950 bar-and-grill restaurants, said its spending could be restricted as it sets aside cash to repay its "significant" debt.
Analysts also say most restaurants are being careful about opening new stores in areas hit the hardest by a U.S. housing slump, such as California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida.
BUCKING THE TREND
Some smaller chains like Buffalo Wild Wings and BJ's Restaurants are growing at a fairly good pace even in this environment because the price of an average meal at their outlets is still attractive to consumers, KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Lynne Collier said.
"You are getting an atmosphere which is much better than peers, food quality that is comparable and service that is comparable or slightly better, and that's all for $2 to $3 less," Wedbush Morgan Securities Brian Moore said.
Buffalo Wild Wings expects to continue to grow stores by 15 percent next year, the same as in the current year.
"Most of the companies have negative customer traffic and in their case it's positive traffic... as Buffalo Wild Wings is in a league of its own," KeyBanc's Collier said.
OVERSEAS AHOY
Many restaurants have also started looking overseas, seeking international partners in an attempt to emulate the success of fast food chains such as McDonald's and Yum Brands' KFC overseas, Technomic's Paul said.
Such expansion does not require much of their own money as restaurant chains can franchise or grant licenses to partners who know the local market.
Paul noted that most of the international operations of Applebee's, recently bankrupt Bennigan's and privately held T.G.I. Friday's have been surprisingly successful.
Texas Roadhouse, which has more than 300 restaurants in 44 U.S. states, sees potential in Asia in its bid to grow internationally in the next three years, Chief Executive G.J. Hart said.
"Currently we have identified China, Dubai and Egypt," Hart said.
Besides Asia, Europe, Mexico and South America are also gaining in popularity as expansion destinations, with California Pizza Kitchen and the Chili's chain setting up shop in some of these places.
"(Casual diners) are not going to be able to grow in the United States. It's a matter of how long it's going to take to find the right partners in other countries and then how long it takes to begin to build stores," Paul said.
"It's probably an initiative that's virtually on every casual diner's plate as something to look at in 2009."