Chiang Mai, Thailand, Oct 22 - India is likely to keep curbs on non-basmati rice exports until the 2009 crop is harvested in October and November in order to keep food prices under control ahead of the general elections next year.
The country may continue with government-to-government sales and allow some varieties to be sold in the open market in limited quantities, Vijay Setia, president of the All India Rice Exporters' Association, said.
"If exports are allowed, prices in the domestic market are likely to go up which no government can afford," he told Reuters on the sidelines of an industry seminar in Chiang Mai.
"They are not going to do it before October or November when the next crop comes out."
India is likely to hold general elections by the middle of next year and the government is closely watching food prices.
Setia said India likely to continue with government-to-government sales to Bangladesh and African countries which are expected to reach 700,000 tonnes this year.
"The government has said it may re-consider and allow certain varieties of non-basmati exports such as poni rice from south India which is in demand from a lot of Indians living abroad."
Even if India allows limited sale of non-basmati rice, the quantities are expected to remain small, unlikely to make a dent in the international market, he said.
Benchmark Thai rice prices fell for the fifth straight week on rising global supplies to $630 per tonne on Wednesday, down more than 40 percent since hitting a record high of $1,080 in April.
Traders say Thai rice prices may fall to $400 per tonne by December or January on fears of global oversupply. But Setia said it was an overreaction as India is unlikely to open up and even if it does, the prices it charges are going to be higher.
"People of Thailand, Vietnam and Pakistan are unnecessarily selling at lower prices in panic. Indian price will not be less than $400 per tonne."
"If any country is selling less than this because of the fear that India may open up to exports, I think they have over discounted their rice."
India is likely to produce 99 to 100 million tonnes of rice from the upcoming harvest, compared with 96.34 million tonnes produced in the previous season, the official said.
He said India's domestic prices are likely to climb if the government allowed exports of non-basmati rice.
"Just one month ago when the government allowed exports of non-basmati seeds, the domestic prices shot up as people thought exports of non-basmati will be eventually allowed."